Michael Crichton's "State of Fear"

[Chants Evensong]

"State of Fear," the newest thriller by prolific author Michael Crichton, is an assertive, and persuasive, argument against the consensus view regarding global warming. He does not assert that global warming is a myth. He does, however, assert that there is no crisis and that the data does not necessarily support the view that global warming exists.

Crichton does state in the appendix of his book that he beleives that humans have contributed to global warming. But he is careful to separate his own belief from the data he relied upon to write "State of Fear." While he beleives global warming exisits, he recognizes that the data is insufficient to support a scientific determination that it exists. The book is also unusually fact based and well documented, with many footnotes and a lengthly bibliography. Although he does beleive in global warming, he also beleives that the rate of temperature change is so negligible that it can not be said to be a crisis.

In Chricton's world, and mine for that matter, the large environmental organizations are no longer grass roots efforts. They are not underdogs. They are well organized, well funded, and part of the establishment, just like many corporations. Although they are governmed by a cause, they are also governed by the law of self-preservation. To him, both sides are spinning the global warming argument. Although he never states this, one could infer that he beleives that the left is spinning more than the right.

I have read several reviews of this book. None of them are particularly good and they seem like they were written by people who simply read press releases about the book or condensed versions. I say this because al most all of them get the character names wrong. So what you are reading now is the best review to date, period. Don't argue. No smirking there in the back. I see you smirking.

The story, I hear, (I have never read a Chrichton book before), follows the Chricton formula: Young naive protaganist encounters evil and battles through in a series of nail-biting adventures and grows to realize some greater truth. The protagonist in this case is a twenty-something lawyer, Peter Evans, working for an LA law firm with environmental leanings. Morton, his main client, is a wealthly philantropist/playboy, is in the midst of funding NERF, an environmental organization, headed by Drake, a Nader clone. Morton encounters a mysterious MIT professor, Kennar, who persuades Morton that NERF is up to no good. NERF, it turns out, has been funding eco-terrorists planning several weather related catastrophies in order to bring attention to rapid climate change, which will then enhance its funding efforts.

They story itself is good. I give it a B+. But it left me wanting at the end. NERF was never clearly brought to justice. That was probably Crichton's intention. He left it up to the reader to decide what constituted a just resolution of his story. His lack of a certain resolution mirrors the lack of certainty regarding the controversy of global warming. In both cases, the truth is ambiguous. It is up to us to do our own homework and to decide on our own whether global warming is a just cause, or just another half-baked cause.

Chricton does not dismiss global warming as a hoax. He urges further research. But he argues persuasively that the current state of research is tainted by a results oriented approach. Since his book challenges conventional wisdom, and conventional wisdom holds that global warming is a fact, much of his evidence of this results oriented reseach is perpetrated by the environmentalists. But he concedes readily that big corporations are also guilty of this tainted approach. And to him, this only makes the problem worse.

The problem in his mind is basically grant funding, where the researcher knows the prejudices of the funder. That he claims is an invitation to results oriented research. Just like the renaissance artists had patrons they had to flatter to gain more commissions, researches have to produce results to get more grants. He advocates blind funding and a separation of those who collect the data from those who interpret the date. Environmental groups, corporations, and the government should blindly fund the research so that no one knows where the money is from, and those collecting data should not know how the data will be studied.

His book is not an attempt to prove that global warming is a myth. It is, however, a strong indictment of the global warming movement. To challenge the conventional wisdom in which the global warming movement has become firmly entrenched, a strong indictment is necessary.

Did I mention that the story is also pretty good, too?

[Relbeek Einre]

It's amazing how much of the underlying politics you describe (and advocate) I agree with. Particularly as regards the encroachment of "results-oriented research" due to funding issue.

I got in a debate in another forum the other week over this issue. He didn't take a balanced approach like you do - he went into the whole global warming is a myth thing. And he cited several distinguished-sounding books, all of which turned out to have been A) promoted by the energy industry and B) based upon already discredited "research."

However, I did come away from that debate with a counterpoint I had to concede: Much of the current environmental movement has expanded - environmentalism is used as a cover for anti-corporatism, anti-globalism, etc. -- a political agenda beyond that of environmental protection.

Food for thought.

[Relbeek Einre]

Oh and I will say this about Crichton:

The formula for a Crichton novel, IMHO, is "white male fear." Jurassic Park was about fear and mistrust of science (with an implied disrespect for God.) Disclosure is about fear of women in positions of authority. Etc. Etc. He plays on that fear and it engages his readerbase on that level. This time? Fear of hippies, I guess.

[Embar Angylwrath]

Oh and I will say this about Crichton:

The formula for a Crichton novel, IMHO, is "white male fear." Jurassic Park was about fear and mistrust of science (with an implied disrespect for God.) Disclosure is about fear of women in positions of authority. Etc. Etc. He plays on that fear and it engages his readerbase on that level. This time? Fear of hippies, I guess.

Hmmm... how does that "white male fear" supposition fit with books/screenplays like The Great Train Robbery, Rising Sun, West World, Coma, Airframe, Runaway, Eater's of the Dead, and quite a few others.

Fact is Crichton is diverse in his sub-themes. I don't buy the "white male fear" as his over-arching theme. One perhaps, but not a a dominant formula.

[Mozmonar]

Hmmm... how does that "white male fear" supposition fit with books/screenplays like The Great Train Robbery, Rising Sun, West World, Coma, Airframe, Runaway, Eater's of the Dead, and quite a few others.

Fact is Crichton is diverse in his sub-themes. I don't buy the "white male fear" as his over-arching theme. One perhaps, but not a a dominant formula.

The most common theme I see in his work (though certainly not pervasive in all his works) is a sort of Luddite mentality.

[Eidolon Faer]

Frightening, I mostly agree with Relbeek.

The cases for AND against Global Warming are both far from convincing, and I've argued that point several times on this board. And the UN-funded research is suspect simply because the researchers know what the people funding them want to hear...and how they will treat any voice of dissent.

And calling Michael Crichton's scientific plot devices credible is a serious indicator that you've never seen his work. He (mis)uses just enough buzzwords to fool anyone with a gradeschool education, and that's about it. If you want a scientific thriller, read The Hot Zone and The Demon in the Freezer. They're far better.

[Relbeek Einre]

Actually AIRFRAME is another white male fear one, Embar. I'm not familiar with the balance of his work however.

[Embar Angylwrath]

I read the Hot Zone. Scary indeed, and plausible (it deals with ebola). The first chapter was one of the most graphically disturbing pieces of literature I've ever read.

[Partha]

I think we're all pretty much in agreement here that there's not enough data to support the dramatic conclusions on either side. The only real worries for me are if the greenies are right, will we be able to see the effects before they tip too far out of balance, and if so, will we have the resources and will to correct it?

[Relbeek Einre]

My favorite is still the popular myth that since volcanoes spew chlorine in much greater quantity than total CFC production, that CFCs must be harmless. That piece of shit was promoted by Rush Limbaugh. On Nightline.

[SicTimMitchell]

I agree with Mozmonar.

A lot of his books remind me of the nuclear scare monster flicks from the '50s.

I enjoy his books a lot, and have read them all. But they're fiction, and a lot of the science looks good in the context of his stories, but is pulled firmly out of his butt.

[Harlowe]

What Bang already so eloquently said.

If you really enjoy having the heebie-jeebies, The Hot Zone or The Coming Plague are guaranteed to satisfy.

[Eidolon Faer]

I think we're all pretty much in agreement here that there's not enough data to support the dramatic conclusions on either side. The only real worries for me are if the greenies are right, will we be able to see the effects before they tip too far out of balance, and if so, will we have the resources and will to correct it?

Well, movies like The Day After Tomorrow aren't gonna do the greenies a damned bit of good...or the rest of us for that matter.

A few billion years ago, Partha, the Earth's atmosphere was made up if mostly nitrogen, ammonia, carbon dioxide. Oxygen, now 22% of the atmosphere, was nonexistent. The first lifeforms saw oxygen (O2) as a deadly poison, in fact. Those same microorganisms still exist, mostly around volcanic vents on the ocean floor or deep underground in caves with hotsprings in them.

I suspect we have a very long way to go yet before we tip the balance of the planet's ecosystem beyond its' ability to ever recover.

That said, we're doing the research and collecting the data. We've got satellites measuring the atmosphere in ways that were inconcievable just 30 years ago. And where we've found compelling evidence, such as with freon and DDT, we've acted decisively.

By all means, we need to remain vigilant. But constantly crying wolf for political reasons is hardly going to make the real threats easier to sift from the chaff, is it? Cheer up a bit.

[Ddrak]

Chants,

Thanks for the review. Got the ebook after reading your comments and was happy to see it had a bundle of Crichton's speeches in addition at the end, as well as hyperlinking all the references. Overall I think the story is complete garbage with holes in the plot you could drive a truck through (not to mention predictable) *but* the underlying message on politicizing science is excellent and so makes the book worth anyone's time to read because it really does make you think.

What I do find entertaining is Eid's previous comment which mentions decisive action on both Freon and DDT - both of which were specifically debunked by the book and its multitude of references as mistakes. DDT in particular was an unmitigated disaster in its ban causing millions of deaths from its absence. Freon - well there's simply no causal link because (like any global environmental research) it's impossible to conduct a true double blind study with controls. There's not even an anecdotal link because you cannot distinguish the effects of the Freon on the atmosphere from the effects of a complex system as a whole - specifically one as complex as the atmosphere which we seriously still have no real way of predicting even one week out.

Dd

[Riggen]

Hmmm... how does that "white male fear" supposition fit with books/screenplays like The Great Train Robbery, Rising Sun, West World, Coma, Airframe, Runaway, Eater's of the Dead, and quite a few others.

I think Relbeek may have a point, at least to an extent. I long ago noticed when reading Rising Sun that Crighton's portrayal of Japanese culture and corporations as nearly all-powerful controllers of our destiny bordered on a cross between paranoia and worship.

[Embar Angylwrath]

Hmmm... how does that "white male fear" supposition fit with books/screenplays like The Great Train Robbery, Rising Sun, West World, Coma, Airframe, Runaway, Eater's of the Dead, and quite a few others.

I think Relbeek may have a point, at least to an extent. I long ago noticed when reading Rising Sun that Crighton's portrayal of Japanese culture and corporations as nearly all-powerful controllers of our destiny bordered on a cross between paranoia and worship.

You have to consider the timeframe of that book. In the 80s, Japanese corporations held an immensely powerful hold on the Japanese population and political structure, especially the steel and banking industries. Quite fascinating, actually. Sure, Chrichton took some poetic license with his stoyline, but its a work of fiction, not a historical document. But actually, the reality of Japan's political-economic structure in the 80s is probably just as an exciting read as Chrichton's book.

[Ddrak]

Chants,

You'll love this - http://writ.news.findlaw.com/leavitt/20040103.html

"Moreover, most scientists now agree that the reason the ice is melting is climate change - and that the change has been caused predominantly by human influences."

Scary when fiction becomes reality isn't it?

Dd

[Partha]

Scary when fiction becomes reality isn't it?

Yep.

[Aabe]

Kinda funny, in the early 80's I worked for a while with risk analysis nuclear engineers. Those guys had more time to study their navels in the concret bunkers in the desert than should be allowed.

At lunch one day a group were discussing the most significiant impact humans could have on the environment. They concluded it would be if we produced a bunch of airplanes dedicated to spraying soot and covering the polar ice caps with soot. That would cause significant melting of the ice there. They then calculated the number of feet the water level would rise, how much land mass would disappear and which cities would submerge.

But if you took all the nuclear reactors around the great lakes. Set them on maximum and to produce heat to the cooling water instead of to power production. In a years time you would have produced enough heat to equate to one extra sunny morning on the lake.

In high school I thought science was above politics. LOL oh the foolish boy I was. In college a teachers assistant in an upper level chem class told me they intentionally used an enzyme found in pig hearts for part of a research project, to get funding from the American Heart Association. Even though the research had absolutlely nothing to do with the heart. Knowingly scamming the AHA, wow was I impressed with the pure science supported NOT by the evil corps, but by the pure minded, ivory tower, universities. It's the little things that can rock your youthful innocent world sometimes.

Shortly after that I was required to take a class in statistics and understand how to gather and present scientific data. My favorite referenece was the book called something like 101 ways to lie with statistics.