It just got nuclear hot in the world.

[Embar Angylwrath]

http://www.reuters.com/article/politics ... ws&sp=true

NK fires off a nuclear bomb (test), giving the world about an hour's notice. Not a good sign. Remember, NK and SK are still technically at war.

[Partha]

Gee, didn't isolating them work so well.

[Ddrak]

Seems this test wasn't a fizzle like the first one. Reports are coming in at the 20-ish kiloton range which is about right for the stuff they're using.

Overall, what are you going to do? You can ignore them, pay them to stop (again) or invade.

Anyway, the real threat isn't to South Korea. It's the fact that NK is well known to be financially strapped and sells weapons to raise capital. There's plenty of factions in the middle east that have buckets of cash and would love a nuke or two. I think Tel Aviv has more to be worried about than Seoul does.

Dd

[Klast Brell]

They popped one off in 2006 and we gave them normalized diplomatic status, and 50,000 tons of oil. If they keep getting paid every time they pop one, what reason would they have to stop?

[jookkor]

Nk cant be invaded, it can only be destroyed. Take a look at satalite photos of their cities, everything remotely modern is aranged to form masive fire corridors. Trying to bring armory and infantry in to those cities would be an expensive mistake.
To protect SK, any attack against Nk would have to be swift, precise and utterly devestating. Even then there is no guarantee that anything would be able to stop them from lobing a missle into Nk. Sk is effectly a nation of hostages.
Imo a thorough round of assasinations would be the way to go.

[Embar Angylwrath]

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. The UN Security Council voted 15-0 to impose sanctions on NK. That means China and the Russian Federation voted for the sanctions. China, being NK's closest ally on the Security Council, is sending a big-ass message to NK to stand down. Let's see if NK hears it. China will be in a very uncomfortable position now if NK continues to rattle its nuclear sabres.

Meanwhile, SK has moved a whole lot of troops to the border. (Purely a PR move... militarily speaking, you don't want to move troops to a known location, it just advertises a sweet location for an attack, nuclear or otherwise). Still though, that move will ratchet up tensions on the peninsula.

NK has two choices here... stand down (which will cause them to lose face... that's the western equivalent of cutting off your balls, so expect them to resist it), or show some defiance to to the world (and China by association) by lobbing another nuke into the atmo.

I expect them to test the UN resolution and world sentiment by putting questionable material on ships and seeing what happens when those ships are interdicted, boarded, and held. If China weighs in on NK's side, expect a heightening of tensions. If China looks the other way by offering a tepid statement, expect NK to go silent for a couple years.

[Ddrak]

Sanctions will apply. Nothing will actually change. NK will eventually approach the US promising to disarm for a big swag of money, then 6 months later the whole cycle starts again.

The only thing that could predicate a war is if someone goes insane and starts sending specops teams in to NK, which leaves them no option but to start open hostilities or lose face.

Dd

[Embar Angylwrath]

Sanctions will apply. Nothing will actually change. NK will eventually approach the US promising to disarm for a big swag of money, then 6 months later the whole cycle starts again.

The only thing that could predicate a war is if someone goes insane and starts sending specops teams in to NK, which leaves them no option but to start open hostilities or lose face.

Dd

I disagree Dd. NK has already lost face... China, NK's most reliable ally, has distanced itself from NK. I expect NK to test the UN reso by baiting the UN into interdicting NK's ships. Those ships will defend with a military response. If China doesn't react, NK will stand down. If China sides with NK (most likely they won't, past some rhetoric), NK will push the issue.

[Embar Angylwrath]

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090613/D98PO6T80.html

NK threatens war. And they are past rattling sabres. I think we call their bluff. Its a country full of starving people, so poor that the electrical grid is shut down at night. (Google NK at night on the images section) NK can be neutralized by air attack. They don't have the capability to thwart stealth technology.

If the UN sanctions result in actual interdiction of NK ships, we'll get a good idea of how NK will respond (btw, the UN Sec Council, which includes China, voted 15-0 to impose the sanctions... China's face is on the line now). The next few weeks ahead will reveal the path the US and SK will be walking in regards to NK and China.

I expect some NK ships will be boarded. China will howl, but do nothing except call for a diplomatic resolution to the issue. NK will then either stand down, or launch an attack at SK, and maybe Japan. If they are crazy enough to do that, China will stand aside, and let NK be torched. Then, when enough damage to NK has been done, they will move in and make NK a protectorate of China.

[Partha]

NK threatens war. And they are past rattling sabres. I think we call their bluff.

Glad to see you can just toss Seoul into the trash can with such speed and seeming glee.

[Saevrok]

There is a good reason we havent just blown them up yet. We stand to lose a significant amount on the ground if the shit hits the fan.

[Ddrak]

They don't have the capability to thwart stealth technology.

They have the capability to take out Seoul before being taken out themselves, and the capability to march a million troops over the border, stealth technology in the air or not. They also have the capability of selling nukes to terrorists as a final "fuck you" to the world. I think Israel has a lot more to fear from North Korea than Japan does.

They may have approximately zero chance of winning anything in the long term but they can sure cause one hell of a lot of pain on the way down. China will be more than happy to let the US spend money reconstructing the place before making it a protectorate, and if you think Iraq was expensive then North Korea will make that chump change, especially given the almost complete lack of, say, oil to fund it all.

Dd

[Alluveal]

They're flexing their muscles. "Look at us! Nuclear weapons and technology. AND we have two American journalists working hard labor camps! TAKE THAT!"