Iowa

[Partha]

Obama and Huckabee take it. ATM Hillary's in third.

Thoughts?

1,675 of 1,781 districts reporting

Obama 37.30
Edwards 29.97
Clinton 29.53
Richardson 2.12
Biden 0.94
Uncommitted 0.12
Dodd 0.03

1,285 of 1,781 districts reporting

Huckabee 34
Romney 25
Thomspon 14
McCain 13
Paul 10
Giuliani 4

[Kulaf]

No real surprises. NH should be Clinton/McCain.

[Embar Angylwrath]

I honestly thought Edwards wouldn't do as well as he did. Candidates who grew up with tons of cash and pay hundreds of dollars for a haircut don't resonate well with mid-westerners. It is very telling, though, that midwesterners are ready to send a black man to the white house. Good for the USA on that one.

On the republican side.. no real surprises.

[Finglefinn]

I'm rooting for Obama.

[Garrdor]

I'm rooting that terrorist erudite and putting my dots on him.

[Flunkie]

What I want to know is how long Edwards campaign will last before he throws in the towel. Everyone knows he isn't going to win the nomination, it will either be Clinton or Obama. For one thing, Edwards can't win in California as his base support is half of Obama's and a third of Clinton's. Unless something totally bizarre happens in the next few weeks, the winner has to win in California, there is no way around it for the Dems. If Edwards drops out, according to polls last month, most of his support goes to Obama which could put Obama in the lead in California. If Edwards hangs around, Clinton is likely, but not certain to win California. If Edwards agreed to run as Clinton's VP or endorsed Clinton, then Clinton would be all but certain to win, of course that's probably a farce as Edwards doesn't strike me as the type to play second fiddle to anyone. So how long Edwards hangs around and who he might endorse could easily decide the nomination. But he himself will not win this race.

For the Republicans, California isn't nearly as important since the Republican rules were changed such that the delegates will be won by district and there is no winner take all for all of California. California will be split many ways for the Republican candidates. It's going to be a weird election year for the Republicans and there is still the possibility of a brokered nomination in the end.

[Partha]

Actually, if it's a close race, California will mean a lot less than you think it does - delegates are assigned by vote proportion.

Tuesday 5 February 2008: 370 of 441 delegates to the Democratic National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in today's California Presidential Primary. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at either the congressional district or statewide level.

* 241 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 53 congressional districts.
o CDs 20, 47: 3
o CDs 2, 3, 11, 16, 18, 19, 21, 22, 25, 26, 31, 32, 34, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 48, 49, 51, 52: 4
o CDs 1, 4, 5, 7, 10, 13, 15, 17, 23, 24, 27, 28, 29, 33, 35, 36, 37, 50, 53: 5
o CDs 6, 8, 9, 12, 14, 30: 6
* In addition, 129 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.
o 81 at-large National Convention delegates
o 48 Pledged PLEOs



Sunday 18 May 2008: Delegation Meeting

The remaining 71 National Convention delegates consist of

* 66 Unpledged PLEO delegates:
o 29 Democratic National Committee members.
o 36 Members of Congress (2 Senators and 34 Representatives).
o 0 Governors.
o 1 Distinguished Party Leader.
* 5 Unpledged "add-on"s (selected during the Delegation Meeting).

These 71 delegates and will go to the Democratic National Convention officially "Unpledged".