Pakistan

[Ddrak]

You know, I'm starting to think we should be more worried about Pakistan than Iran at the moment...

Dd

[Klast Brell]

He had a very good reason for suspending the constitution. He said it was to protect democracy from Judicial activism and terrorists.

Hmmm Where have I heard that before.

[Partha]

Good thing we're working to spread freedom and democracy in Pakistan, right?

[Kulaf]

The main thing to worry about with Pakistan is.....if radical muslims take over......what are the 1 billion hindu's to the South going to do.

[Embar Angylwrath]

The main thing to worry about with Pakistan is.....if radical muslims take over......what are the 1 billion hindu's to the South going to do.

India has the bomb. They have several. But so does Pakistan.

[Partha]

As does Russia...and China...neither of which will allow any tomfoolery in their backyard.

[Embar Angylwrath]

As does Russia...and China...neither of which will allow any tomfoolery in their backyard.

I tend to agree. I think the aspect of nuclear war between India and Pakistan probably scares China more than it does us. They could see their entire emerging econmy collapse because of the disrution. Meanwhile, we'll just lose the computer help-desk call center industry.....

[Ddrak]

I would be more worried about what happens to the nukes if there's a breakdown in government than I would be worried about a formal war.

Dd

[Embar Angylwrath]

I would be more worried about what happens to the nukes if there's a breakdown in government than I would be worried about a formal war.

Dd

Surely a concern, but I'm willing to bet we have satellite repositioned by now, and are watching every known location of those nukes. If a full scale civil melt-down occurs, and unauthorized elements attempt to truck some nukes away, they'll meet with an accident on the road.

[Ddrak]

I would be more worried about what happens to the nukes if there's a breakdown in government than I would be worried about a formal war.

Dd

Surely a concern, but I'm willing to bet we have satellite repositioned by now, and are watching every known location of those nukes. If a full scale civil melt-down occurs, and unauthorized elements attempt to truck some nukes away, they'll meet with an accident on the road.

Except it's not possible to watch like that, or to even figure out what is going into or out of an underground facility from a satellite. Hitting every truck that looks vaguely suspicious isn't going to work either - especially if you're trying to avoid the full scale civil meltdown from turning directly against US interests.

[Trollbait]

Any worries about Pakistan's arsenal are premature at this time.

[Embar Angylwrath]

Surely a concern, but I'm willing to bet we have satellite repositioned by now, and are watching every known location of those nukes. If a full scale civil melt-down occurs, and unauthorized elements attempt to truck some nukes away, they'll meet with an accident on the road.

Except it's not possible to watch like that, or to even figure out what is going into or out of an underground facility from a satellite. Hitting every truck that looks vaguely suspicious isn't going to work either - especially if you're trying to avoid the full scale civil meltdown from turning directly against US interests.

Its not possible to put a satellite in geosynchronous orbit and watch a specific location?

[Ddrak]

Its not possible to put a satellite in geosynchronous orbit and watch a specific location?

Spy satellites run in low earth orbit (100 miles) - you can't see jack from geosynchronous distance (26,000 miles). Even if you could watch a location permanently, which would be possible with a good number of satellites, you still can't actually tell who is doing what. Remember the whole debacle of Powell's presentation in front of the UN? That's what you get for trusting satellite imagery and making up stories to fit the pictures.

Having said all of that, the Pakistani military is going to guard those things more than just about anything else.

Dd

[Trollbait]

Having said all of that, the Pakistani military is going to guard those things more than just about anything else.

Yes. They will guard them above even guarding the life of Mussaraf.

On top of that these are complex devices with multiple layers of security built into not only the storage locations for the weapons but built into the weapons themselves.

[Arathena]

Its not possible to put a satellite in geosynchronous orbit and watch a specific location?

Spy satellites run in low earth orbit (100 miles) - you can't see jack from geosynchronous distance (26,000 miles). Even if you could watch a location permanently, which would be possible with a good number of satellites, you still can't actually tell who is doing what. Remember the whole debacle of Powell's presentation in front of the UN? That's what you get for trusting satellite imagery and making up stories to fit the pictures.

Having said all of that, the Pakistani military is going to guard those things more than just about anything else.

Dd

Correct. Geosynch also requires equatorial orbit - all stable orbits require the track of a great circle - If you track the latitiude vs time of any other orbit, you'll get a sine wave if you graph it. Technically, you can run geosynch at any altitude, it's just ... hard, and you're still stuck at 0 degrees latitute - 26,000 miles is chosen for the relatively low relative velocity and visibility angle - You can see around 35-40% of the earth at once from that height.

The questions to ask, however, are not really the physical security of Pakistan's weapons. They're smaller, they don't have many(though, a 'few dozen' is still a LOT of firepower), and they don't have launch vehicles capable of reaching very far, as far as I know. For them to get a nuke to London or Beijing, they're going to have to drive it on a truck. (Yes, I know, but a truck is way easier to intercept on it's multi-day journey.)

The real questions to ask are: Who has launch authority? Who turns the keys on the ignition? Who aims the things? How loyal are all of these to Musharraf? Who's going to take over of Musharraf takes an IED blast in the teeth? Things are rarely a problem, but people are.

If there IS a launch, targets are likely major population centers in India and Israel. In that case, what's the fallout? How much does the resultant nuclear winter set back global warming? Whose economies are disrupted? Who loses food production to cobalt poisoning? What really happens?

[Embar Angylwrath]

The real disruption to the US wil be the incredibly long wait times we encounter when we call Dell's customer help lines.

[jookkor]

you yankee folk know that the majority of Pakistan is comprised of people who want nothing at all to do with a theocracy...right? And when I say that I dont actually mean that the mood of the Pakistani nation is an unspoken wish that you will invade them and destroy any chance thay may have at retaining a secular democracy.

[Fallakin Kuvari]

The real disruption to the US wil be the incredibly long wait times we encounter when we call Dell's customer help lines.

Thank god I got direct american numbers.