Clinton v. Obama

[Embar Angylwrath]

The danger the Dems face is a fracturing of the party, and stalling a national campaign that, for McCain, starts today. He can raise more money, get in front of issues, and speak with the unified voice of the Republicans. He can concentrate on clarifying his agenda and message, with virtually no opposition from the Dems, because they are still fighting each other. He can run essentially unopposed now, until the Dems decide who they want to run against him. Thats a HUGE advantage in politics.

Aside from that, if Hillary stays in this until the convention, half the Dem party will suffer disenfranchisement. Those who feel slighted by the process just may decide to stay home on election day, or worse, vent their outrage by voting for McCain. That will hand victory to the Repubs.

It's almost impossible for Hillary to win. She knows it. But she's ready to rip the party in half to try anyway. That says more about her personal ambition than it does about her love for the party. If she can check her ego, she'll broker a deal with Obama, run as his VP (he has to agree of course), which will unite the party, almost ensure a Dem victory, and set herself to be President in 4-8 years. However, if I was Obama, I wouldn't do it, because I would feel Hillary couldn't wait 8 years, and would be looking to sabotage the administration just so she could run in 4 years.

I've said it before, I'll say it again. Hillary Clinton is a self-serving, power-craving, megalomaniac. She wants the Presidency not because of what she can do for the country, but what the country can do for her.

[superwalrus]

I bet you would be voting Mormon if it was a choice between Romney and Hillary.

My dad and I got in a huge argument about this because I told him I would vote libertarian if Romney got the nod.

Walrus

[Harlowe]

The danger the Dems face is a fracturing of the party, and stalling a national campaign that, for McCain, starts today. He can raise more money, get in front of issues, and speak with the unified voice of the Republicans. He can concentrate on clarifying his agenda and message, with virtually no opposition from the Dems, because they are still fighting each other. He can run essentially unopposed now, until the Dems decide who they want to run against him. Thats a HUGE advantage in politics.

Aside from that, if Hillary stays in this until the convention, half the Dem party will suffer disenfranchisement. Those who feel slighted by the process just may decide to stay home on election day, or worse, vent their outrage by voting for McCain. That will hand victory to the Repubs.

It's almost impossible for Hillary to win. She knows it. But she's ready to rip the party in half to try anyway. That says more about her personal ambition than it does about her love for the party. If she can check her ego, she'll broker a deal with Obama, run as his VP (he has to agree of course), which will unite the party, almost ensure a Dem victory, and set herself to be President in 4-8 years. However, if I was Obama, I wouldn't do it, because I would feel Hillary couldn't wait 8 years, and would be looking to sabotage the administration just so she could run in 4 years.

I've said it before, I'll say it again. Hillary Clinton is a self-serving, power-craving, megalomaniac. She wants the Presidency not because of what she can do for the country, but what the country can do for her.

I think Embar nailed this on all counts - well, at least this is exactly what I've been thinking. The Hillary-Obama fighting has hurt this party more than they care to admit. It has been extremely divisive. So right now, there is a metric ton of butthurt going on and I'm hearing a lot of defeat from staunch Dem's over Hillary's behavior and how the positive momentum that they felt about this election has been sucked out by her. She's a harpy, we all know this.

[Croinc]

According to http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/ Hillary is gonna have to whore out her daughter to some more superdelegates if she wants to win. I'd hit it just to stain up some of her clothing. Bitter irony.

[Rsak]

Maybe we should hold off on the obituaries for the Democrats, seeing as how both candidates seperately pulled more votes than the entire Republican field combined in Texas and damned near did it in Ohio, too?

You do realize that you can cross vote in Texas? It means that republicans crossed over to the democratic primary so they could push Hillary ahead and make McCain more likely to win.

[Partha]

Does not jibe with past results. Had a large mass of Republicans REALLY went to Clinton, the advantage in the popular vote would have been greater than ~100k in a total of 4M votes cast.

[Embar Angylwrath]

Yeah, Rsak is off base (as usual).

However, the current polls show that if Clinton loses the nomination, 25% of the people who support her would support McCain rather than vote for Obama. What a conundrum for the Democratic party. That effectively hands the Oval Office to McCain.

I really can't believe this. The Democrats are finding every way to hand the Presidency back the Republicans. This was their time, their election. I really saw no way (absent a huge scandal) that the Dems would lose the White House. They were poised to capitalize on all the disgust directed at the current administration. Now it looks like they're going to squander that. I know there must be much wailing, moaning and gnashing of teeth within the party over this.

And it makes me happy.

[Harlowe]

the current polls show that if Clinton loses the nomination, 25% of the people who support her would support McCain rather than vote for Obama.

I know you want to buy it, but you're a smart guy, you don't seriously believe that bs. It's no different than Ann Coulter saying she would campaign for and vote for Hillary over McCain, because she felt Hillary was more conservative than McCain. It's just heated bullshit people spew during a hotly contested fight. When the rubber hits the road, people tend to hold their nose and vote for their party even when they aren't enamored with it's candidate.

You'll never see that 25% jumping ship.

[Ddrak]

I'm reserving judgement on the Democratic nomination and whether it damages the party or not in November for a few more months. Typically the Democrats rebound from this sort of thing pretty well, unlike the GOP who has real issues if there isn't a clear winner by March. A lot depends on how gracious the loser is at the conventions.

Dd

[rodric]

Yeah, if we should learn anything about this campaign, it's that the pundits' common wisdom lasts about a week before being overturned for some other completely different idea by events on the ground.

It's interesting to try to interpret events, but sometimes even the smartest people jump to conclusions all at the same time.

Six months ago, McCain had zero chance of winning the nomination, much less the presidency. Today he's a "lock."

No wonder many people don't bother listening to political analysis.

Rhodric

[Partha]

the current polls show that if Clinton loses the nomination, 25% of the people who support her would support McCain rather than vote for Obama.

I know you want to buy it, but you're a smart guy, you don't seriously believe that bs. It's no different than Ann Coulter saying she would campaign for and vote for Hillary over McCain, because she felt Hillary was more conservative than McCain. It's just heated bullshit people spew during a hotly contested fight. When the rubber hits the road, people tend to hold their nose and vote for their party even when they aren't enamored with it's candidate.

You'll never see that 25% jumping ship.

Actually, it may be less unlikely than you think.

After all, they're both being run by the same company.

As has been widely reported, Hillary Clinton's top guru, Mark Penn, is leading the charge within the Clinton campaign to go aggressively negative against Obama. Besides the fact that Penn is the architect responsible for Hillary's presidential aspirations going from "inevitable" to being on life support, he is reportedly obsessed with destroying Obama. While it is understandable that Clinton's top adviser wants his client to win at all costs, going massively negative against Obama (or Hillary for that matter) risks damaging our candidate in the fall election against McCain. Unfortunately, this is something another "client" would welcome. That client is named John McCain.

Penn is the CEO of Burson-Marsteller, a DC public relations (PR) firm. Burson-Marsteller owns a subsidiary, BKSH. BKSH is run by Charlie Black. Black is a longtime Republican politico, and a top adviser for John McCain for President. And, as Think Progress notes, while Black is a volunteer on the McCain campaign, he views Mcain as his client and continues to take a paycheck from BKSH. JedReport dissected these relationships in a diary on DailyKos last night.

[Finglefinn]

Embar, Jecks, Cro and I are going to vote for the Dem nominee come November. Just you wait.

[Croinc]

Embar, Jecks, Cro and I are going to vote for the Dem nominee come November. Just you wait.

It's not so much that I am gonna vote for John McCain. It's much more that I will do everything in my power to assure that neither one of those unqualified, incompetant, liberal tax and spenders do NOT become president.

[Croinc]

liberal tax and spenders

And before anyone jumps me on that part of the statement, I know that could apply to McCain as well.

[Klast Brell]

So are you going to vote McCain or not?

[Croinc]

Dunno yet. It would be hard to pull the lever on that one. Might have to wait and see if he choses a true fiscal and social conservative as a VP. In that sense, I might vote for the "ticket" rather than the person......and secretly hope that McCain kicks the bucket.

Sad but true.

--Cro

[Trollbait]

If the election contest is Obama v. McCain I will vote for Senator Obama.

If the election is Clinton v. McCain I will vote vote McCain.

[Klast Brell]

I'm beginning to think that Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota, might be a likely VP pick for him. Pawlently's White House aspirations are no secret in Minnesota, and he did major work for the McCain campaign dating back to his exploratory committee. Since then he has been running around the country stumping and fund raising for the guy, etc.
He would make a good balance to the ticket. He's from the north. His conservative credentials are solid. He's young.

[Harlowe]

If the election contest is Obama v. McCain I will vote for Senator Obama.

If the election is Clinton v. McCain I will vote vote McCain.

This is precisely how I am leaning as well.

[Kulaf]

I will not vote for Clinton......period.

I see no compelling reason to vote for Obama. Change for changes sake is never a good reason to vote for any candidate.

McCain is a right leaning centrist.....like me. He has my vote.