Interesting economy take

Dumbass pinko-nazi-neoconservative-hippy-capitalists.
Ddrak
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Re: Interesting economy take

Post by Ddrak »

Embar Angylwrath wrote:Dd.. where are you getting that "few trillion dollars" amount? My understanding is the operating costs of the war are projected at $110 billion in 2008 as requested by Bush. The annual budget is close to three trillion dollars, which makes the Iraq war cost less than 1% of the annual budget.

The trillions of dollars figure I see is usually the result of economists projecting the TOTAL cost of the war, not the annual. And they include stuff like loss of productivity of Iraq war veterens, hypothetical losses from trade loss related to the reputation of the US, increased healthcare costs of US veterans, loss of productivity if the money had been spent in other programs, fuel price increases attributed (I use that term loosely here) to the Iraq war, etc., etc. In short, the "trillion" dollar figure is a hypothetical number, and it isn't related to the DIRECT costs of the war in Iraq.

Can you provide a non-partisan link that shows the actual annual spending for the war in Iraq?
First of all your math sucks. $110b of a $3000b budget is not "less than 1%". In addition, $110b is the off-budget cost for the war and doesn't include the already budgeted military expenses that are part of the $515b defense budget (which has an estimated $100b-$200b increase due to the costs of a protracted war). That makes the Iraq war around 10% of the budget for '08. That is NOT a small amount.

Note that both the CBO and CRS predict the Iraq war to run well over a trillion dollars if the current course is pursued. Neither are partisan institutions. The current direct spending on Iraq alone is between $650b and $750b so claiming "a few trillion" in economic costs to the US is hardly a stretch. I don't know why you're harping on the "direct" costs - who gives a shit? We're talking about the economy here and you tossed in the comparison to GDP so you need to factor in all the chain effects if you want to deal in that sort of terms, or just admit you threw in GDP as a red herring to make the cost sound small.

If you want to talk direct costs then you're looking at around 10% of the annual federal budget.
If you want to talk economic costs then it's much more fluid but easily in the trillions already just from the increased cost of oil alone, not to mention the absolute destruction of the US's foreign image and significantly diminished ability to influence other nation's economic and military policies.

Dd
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Embar Angylwrath
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Re: Interesting economy take

Post by Embar Angylwrath »

Dd... you're applying a number (estimate) for the total cost of the war, and applying it as if it were an annual hit to the budget.
Correction Mr. President, I DID build this, and please give Lurker a hug, we wouldn't want to damage his self-esteem.

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Re: Interesting economy take

Post by Finglefinn »

Partha-

You are blowing this way out of proportion. Default rates are indeed higher, but it's not going to break the economy. You need to realize that 47.% is a solid equity number. If it was a HUGE crisis, that percentage, as I said in my previous post, would be more like 25%.

If you really understand personal home equity, you should also understand that your money can work for you. For many home owners in the US, having less than 75% owed on your house is a bad investment strategy. If you can afford the payment, you shouldn't be spending you extra cash paying down your mortgage. You should be spending it on other investments. And it today's market, you should be buying more real estate, even if it's just for a vacation home. Paying down your mortgage as fast as you can and having a mortgage burning party is a very old investment strategy.

Historically, home values always go up. I agree that many home purchases in the hot areas, like California, Florida and Colorado, should not have been done, but obviously, the vast majority of home owners in the US are unaffected by this mortgage "crisis."
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Re: Interesting economy take

Post by Partha »

...except, of course, that people are already spending more than 95% of their income...which is why the savings rate is in the tank.

...and banks currently taking huge writedowns on debt aren't going to be extending credit lines to people who don't have the money to invest and pay it back.

Once again, these two clowns are suggesting that Americans who already feel squeezed are going to leverage their houses, 401ks and future retirement funds to make the economy stagger along.

Not. Going. To. Happen. Retrenchment is here, and it would be wise for more economists to stop sniffing Greenspan's backside and take a look over his globes.
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Ddrak
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Re: Interesting economy take

Post by Ddrak »

Embar Angylwrath wrote:Dd... you're applying a number (estimate) for the total cost of the war, and applying it as if it were an annual hit to the budget.
No I wasn't. I was taking the current budget expenditure on Iraq (just short of 300b this year) and dividing by the total budget (just short of 3000b) to get 10%.

It's a significant drain.

Dd
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