Ukraine

[Ddrak]

So... Russia eh?

[Kulaf]

Yup. Artificial immigration of Russians into Crimea to support their fleet for 70 years tends to make the area full of Russians.

[Embar Angylwrath]

It has been under heavy Russian influence since Catherine the Great took it in the late 1700's. My question is.. why do we even care? We have no interests there, and if anything, it's a EU thing. Time for the EU to start dealing with their own issues without leaning on the US, other than diplomatic support.

Obama caught a lot of grief over this, but there wasn't much any sitting President could do, regardless of party affiliation. We aren't going to get in a military stand-off with Russia over the Crimea, which was the only fast-term, very visible option open to the US. Frankly, we would have done the same thing if there was an surprise overthrow of the governments in Guam or Puerto Rico and especially the Phillipines. We would have moved militarily to protect our assets there.

[Arathena]

It has been under heavy Russian influence since Catherine the Great took it in the late 1700's. My question is.. why do we even care? We have no interests there, and if anything, it's a EU thing. Time for the EU to start dealing with their own issues without leaning on the US, other than diplomatic support.

Obama caught a lot of grief over this, but there wasn't much any sitting President could do, regardless of party affiliation. We aren't going to get in a military stand-off with Russia over the Crimea, which was the only fast-term, very visible option open to the US. Frankly, we would have done the same thing if there was an surprise overthrow of the governments in Guam or Puerto Rico and especially the Phillipines. We would have moved militarily to protect our assets there.

The only decision Obama wouldn't catch the exact same grief over would be the simultaneous resignation of himself and Biden. Tides come in, tides go out, impeach any and all Democratic Presidents. The primary reason we care is because it's a chance to denounce Obama. Excuse me if I don't take our Fear, Uncertainty, and Discord Professionals seriously.

The real trigger, imo, lies on the Baltic Sea - Lithuania, Estonia, and Latveria, er, Latvia, (Sorry, Dr. Doom!) are all NATO members, and a violation of their sovereignty is a bit more serious because of that. Fortunately, you'd have to trump up some pretty big things to provide the kind of cover that Russia has in the Crimea, and it's hard to think of them having anything worth the trouble. I don't know that I know enough to have a valid opinion on what I think his long game is - I expect that the same professional FUDsowers will be largely wrong, but the shenanigans he's used to hold power over the years, and the anti-democratic nature of his policies are not comforting to me.

[Harlowe]

Crimea appears to be some low-hanging fruit for Putin to grab. I know some think that Putin wants a civil war, so he can annex Ukraine by stepping in under the guise of stabilizing the area, but I'm not convinced that he'd go to that extreme. I'm sure Putin wants to unite more territory under the motherland, but I'm not so sure if he really wants to risk the power, money and comfort he and his family have across Europe as well as his homeland. I don't see what our country can or really should do about Crimea other than what it is currently doing.

I thought this was interesting from a Russian business owner's POV

Russian here sharing thoughts on the Ukraine situation.

Background: I own a small IT company with offices in Moscow and Kiev. Traveled to Kiev a lot in 2013, last time in December. Have mixed Ukranian/Russian employees in Kiev.

Putin has always been seeing Ukraine as a prodigal son which sometimes will return to his daddy, and he conducted politics accordingly completely ignoring the fact that not all Ukrainians agree with his vision.

With Putin's support (Russian media, PR specialists, election fraud consulting, gas price discounts etc) Yanukovich got elected in 2010. He was dumb, greedy and corrupted and thus convenient to Putin. He knew for sure that Yanukovich will lead Ukraine's already weak economy to a crash. After that, the prodigal son was supposed to crawl to daddy's feet. I believe it was the original plan.

First part went smoothly — as of November 2013 Ukrainian state default was almost inevitable without external financing. Closing the trap, Russia forced Yanukovich to break his pro-European promises to the Ukrainian people and to EU.

The Ukrainian revolution wasn't something completely unexpected but the plan had to be changed. Putin used the short window of opportunity between the deposition of Yanukovich and the May election to run the second part of his plan. Western countries, being dependent of Russian resources and access to Russian markets, are expected to say something for their voters and then to suck it up.

This plan is simple and even beautiful in some perverted sense. I think it will be successfully completed. Crimeans will vote for the union with Russia on 16 March and there is a strong chance that Russia will accept the offer. Brainwashed Russians (70-80% of grown population) will love it thinking Putin just saved fellow Crimeans from Ukrainian fascists.

I am sure all this is a huge strategic mistake. Russia already has weak economy and Putin will need to spend much money to support failing Crimean economy. Crimean infrastructure (roads, railroad, water and power supply) and tourism totally depend on continental Ukraine. All remaining Eastern and Western Ukrainians will unite on the anti-Russian ground, welcoming NATO military bases near Russian borders. The conquerors' euphoria among Russians will go away and they will need more war. Russian corrupted elites, all having assets and families in Europe, under constant sanctions threat will be seeking a way to replace Putin with someone mentally sane.

But the worst is irreparable damage done to Russia as an international partner. Nobody wants to deal with an unpredictable country who robs its closest neighbor and natural ally and breaks international law. Imagine US suddenly invading Canada to occupy, say, Nova Scotia. Technically it's possible, but obviously insane.

[Embar Angylwrath]

Heating up there. That noted, the media is hyping it up. They reported Russian troops were massing on the borders, and then cited existing Russian bases and airfields that were long established on the border. There were, however, a couple of places where Russian conventional military were massing where there were no Russian forces before.

I think Russia has most of what it wants, the Crimea, which means they control the Russian navy assets based in the Crimea. I do not think Putin, even in his most grandiose dreams, would think he could successfully pull off the annexation of the entire country of Ukraine, not with all the bloodshed it would require.

[Ddrak]

Putin's smart. He'll support the internal factions in varying ways to keep it destabilised until the world basically begs someone to go in and sort it out.

Dd

[Embar Angylwrath]

Tanks and rocket launchers now being provided to Russian separatists. So far, the number of tanks and launchers is low, and they seem to be old design, but the message is still the same with almost zero cost to Russia. Sending in WWII era T-34s leaves the door open to sending in T-90s, which are some of the best tanks in the world.

Putin is definitely flexing some biceps here. Haven't noticed much of that in Obama.

[Ddrak]

What should he be doing?

Dd

[Harlowe]

Riding bare-chested on a Apoopaloosa waving an American flag and/or rifle.

[Arathena]

Riding bare-chested on a Apoopaloosa waving an American flag and/or rifle.

And wave the second reason that Republicans hate him in their faces? Neo-conservative doctrine indicates that we should invade an oil rich country in the same approximate area of the world, and claim it's to save ourselves from Russian separatist terrorism. Azerbaijan might fit the bill.

[Embar Angylwrath]

Guess I was wrong about Putin. Looks like he wants more of Ukraine.