Malaysia Air Flight 17

[Embar Angylwrath]

If it turns out the Russians were behind the downing of MA-17, which had 23 Americans on it, what do you think our response will be? And what do you think it should be?

[Embar Angylwrath]

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2 ... ng-of-MH17

Much respect for the CS Monitor. I think they found the smoking gun on the attack.

[Kulaf]

I agree that it seems to be the most likely scenario.

[Ddrak]

That's definitely most likely, and Putin's statement of "well, it's Ukraine's fault for trying to fight us" makes it certain.

What should the response be? Probably a bunch of diplomats talking an awful lot would seem appropriate. Do you think the Aussies (27 people) and Dutch (100+) should take the same action as what you might propose the US should?

Dd

[Arathena]

Our response is going to be some vague waving around of trade restrictions, until the French and Germans ask us to please not make Gasprom eliminate exports to Europe, thank you very much. There will be a bunch of blustering from the morons who think that death by nuclear weapon will issue in the second coming of Christ, and Fox News will put it in alternation with Benghazi investigations until the next Republican president is elected.

There will be a lot of talking. Hard to say what comes of it.

Edit: Preferably, the guy who pulled the trigger, and anyone involved in ordering it, should end up on the docket in the Hague for war crimes against an uninvolved civilian populace.

[Ddrak]

They guy who pulled the trigger probably doesn't want Putin to be the first to find him.

Realistically, the outcome won't be much different to when the US shot down an Iranian air liner.

Dd

[Kulaf]

I think there will be differences. The Vincennes tried to warn off the Iranian aircraft numerous times, just not on civilian channels as it thought it was a military craft. I doubt any such warning was broadcast in this incident on any frequency. I also doubt the separatists will be able to pony up 200k US per passenger that the US did to settle any and all claims. Unless of course Putin wants to pay it for them.

[Ddrak]

Minor differences. If you buy the prevailing story, the militias thought the 777 was a military plane as well and had been threatening to shoot them down for a while. Agreed on compensation though. Putin might pay (depending on outcome of investigation) - depends on how much public opinion he wants to sway.

Dd

[Kulaf]

A military plane flying at 33,000 feet?

[Ddrak]

Military transport. Check Embar's CSMonitor link.

Dd

[Kulaf]

Yeah, they thought it was an AN-26. Only the AN-26 has a service ceiling of 24,600 feet and a cruising speed of 273 mph and is a prop plane. The Boeing 777 was at 33,000 feet and cruising at 518 mph and is a jet. Anyone with any competence would know that was not an AN-26.

My feeling.......they knew they didn't have anything in the air, and they didn't care one iota what they shot down.

[Ddrak]

I'd tend to agree with that.

Dd

[Kulaf]

Turns out it was a Russian unit:

A report released today by German investigative group CORRECT!V concludes that a Buk surface to air missile launcher operated by the 53rd Russian Air Defense Brigade shot down passenger jet MH17.

The report, titled MH17: Searching for the Truth, marries fresh testimony from military experts, separatist fighters and residents of east Ukraine, with photo, video, social media and satellite evidence to produce a compelling account of the events that led to the tragic deaths of all the Malaysian Airlines flight’s 298 passengers and crew on July 17 2014.

The group believe the Buk entered Ukraine to protect Russian armor that had proven vulnerable to aerial attack earlier in the conflict, which erupted in April when Kremlin-backed militants seized several government buildings in the Donbas.

Military experts told CORRECT!V only highly trained specialists acting as a close-knit unit could have operated the Buk, and they would have had just seconds from switching on their radar to firing the rocket or risk being targeted themselves.

CORRECT!V went to the town of Snizhne in east Ukraine, held by Kremlin-backed separatists. Reporters from the group say they spoke to several witnesses in the town who described sights and sounds consistent with the launch of a Buk missile on July 17, 2014. One witness even said he had seen the launcher and then the rocket firing shortly afterwards:

“They shot it down. The missile flew from here. We saw it, as it flew. I was in the yard and heard an explosion, a bang. It was a really loud bang. The tiles on my roof shook. Then there was a long sound. And then a very loud explosion: bang, bang. And just as I ran out into the road, the plane began to fall. Down the road, several kilometers from here. And you could see it burn.”

CORRECT!V also interviewed a former SBU officer turned separatist commander, Aleksandr Khodakovskiy, who originally told Reuters his fighters were in possession of a Buk, then retracted his statement.

Khodakovskiy says a Buk from Russia was sent back after the MH17 disaster, but his forces are still supported by one Buk unit. He suggests neither are operated by his militia: “I know for sure that the popular militia did not shoot down the Boeing. We don’t have and didn’t have specialists who can operate such high precision weapons systems.”

Searching for the Truth also debunks rival claims by the Russian authorities that a Ukrainian jet destroyed MH17. The report argues the type of damage visible to the wreckage could only have been inflicted by a surface to air missile and that a jet firing on the front of the aircraft would, in any case, have to be travelling from Russian airspace, which MH17 was just 40 kilometers away from entering.

Aside from the new testimony, much of the report’s findings are drawn from information already in the public domain, including evidence from renowned open source investigators Bellingcat.

Bellingcat investigators have spent months gathering, verifying and geolocating social media posts, photo and video evidence related to Russian troop movements in Ukraine.

They geolocated photos of a Buk missile launcher on its journey from Snizhne to Russia immediately after the MH17 was downed, and were able to identify the launcher as belonging to Russia’s 53rd Air Defense Brigade, based in Kursk. Investigators did so by matching a partially obscured identification number and the unique scratches and dents shown in the Snizhne photos with photos taken in June of a convoy of Russian armour as it drives towards the Ukrainian border from Kursk.

"The new investigation confirms Bellingcat's earlier work on the movements of the Buk on July 17, and that it originated from the 53rd brigade in Russia. At this point it's undeniable the Russian military provided the Buk, and there's more and more information that links it to the downing of MH17,” says Eliot Higgins, founder of Bellingcat.

“It seems that the one key piece of information is autopsy data from the Dutch criminal investigation. They've confirmed pieces of metal were found in the bodies, and if they come from a Buk warhead then I don't think there will be any question about who was responsible for shooting down MH17."

You can read the full report here: https://mh17.correctiv.org/english/