NHTSA and Toyota

[Ddrak]

There is an old saying.....you can put a silk kimono on an old French whore.......and she's still and old French whore.

That's the awesome thing about old French whores. If you tried it with a pig, you'd just get a pig!

Dd

[Kulaf]

While we are making assumptions about data that we are only getting bits of through the media, let's throw in some good ones like:

90% of reported uncontrolled acceleration probably fall into 4 categories
1) Unintended operator error (pushing the gas instead of brake during a rear end accident - very common)
2) False claims to avoid speeding fines
3) False claims to reverse or avoid fault determination in accidents
4) False claims to support litigation against auto maker

The last 10% (probably less in reality) are actual system failures.

Of course there is not basis in reality for the numbers I just put up there, but since there is only anecdotal evidence to support that UA even happens, my numbers and the hyped numbers being used to castigate Toyota have a lot in common.

I am just hoping that the next claim will be that tin whiskers caused this, I would love to watch Congress paint themselves into that corner.

Tora

Your analysis of said hypothetical data might be correct if said data was coming from an insurance source. The problem is......well the data is not coming from people making stuff up to defend themselves. Rather it is data where people have gone the extra mile to either directly contact Toyota to register a complaint......or in the case of the NHTSA, people have written in to them or filed petitions to get the issue resolved.

[Kulaf]

Just to toss another log on the "anecdotal" evidence pile:

http://articles.latimes.com/2010/feb/03 ... -2010feb03

The action comes after a growing number of independent experts have voiced doubt about Toyota's explanation, saying it cannot account for all the reports of sudden acceleration and that part of the blame may rest with the electronic throttle system. The Times reported last fall that complaints of sudden acceleration in Toyota vehicles skyrocketed with the introduction of electronic throttles.

[Kulaf]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/art ... AD9E7FG7G0

DETROIT — At least 15 Toyota drivers have complained to U.S. safety officials that their cars sped up by themselves even after being fixed under recalls for sticky gas pedals or floor mat problems, according to an Associated Press analysis.

[Torakus]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/art ... AD9E7FG7G0

DETROIT — At least 15 Toyota drivers have complained to U.S. safety officials that their cars sped up by themselves even after being fixed under recalls for sticky gas pedals or floor mat problems, according to an Associated Press analysis.

An equal number of Americans have claimed to have been abducted by aliens in that same time frame, doesn't make it true. Please show one single verifiable case of UA caused by electronic failure.

[Kulaf]

Verifiable by who? The governmental body that has been sweeping it under the rug, or the company that stands to lose millions?

[Kulaf]

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/03/08/califo ... tml?hpt=T2

Prius not subject to floormat recall accelerates to over 90mph and requires police involvement to stop the vehicle.

[Torakus]

Verifiable by who? The governmental body that has been sweeping it under the rug, or the company that stands to lose millions?

ZOMG Konspiracy!

To my trained eye, the database shows a steady rate of UA claims against various manufacturers right up until the accident that killed Mark Saylor and his family in San Diego. This trend remained pretty damn steady from the time that Audi claims normalized until now. One has to question the dramatic spike in claims after the highly publicized Saylor crash - a crash that was investigated by the San Diego County Sheriff and determined to have been caused by THE FLOOR MAT! Toyota didn't make that conclusion, the accident investigators did. Toyota simply responded to the claim by implementing a mitigating measure. When Toyota's own failure modes analysis indicated the potential for further failures due to an actual mechanical failure of the pedal, they implemented another mitigation.

I work in the safety world (for the government) and I can tell you flat out, that if NHTSA only investigated 50 of 24,000 in the last ten years, it is because they smelled the bullshit in the air around the others.

If this was a real problem, don't you think somebody would have had an independent group of engineers go through one of these Toyotas with a fine toothed comb and discover the problem?

Please get back to me when the fever related to your Audi 5000 Syndrome drops a few degrees.

Tora

[Kulaf]

Well your "trained eye" looking at your data directly contradicts the findings of the LA Times which I linked earlier in which the Times says that incidents of UA with Toyota models "skyrocketed" after the introduction of electronic throttles. Perhaps you need to look back just a bit further.

[Partha]

Did you know the number of deaths by shark attack is skyrocketing this year? If we keep up the current pace, shark deaths will increase by 400% over 2009.

[Torakus]

Well your "trained eye" looking at your data directly contradicts the findings of the LA Times which I linked earlier in which the Times says that incidents of UA with Toyota models "skyrocketed" after the introduction of electronic throttles. Perhaps you need to look back just a bit further.

LA Times is full of shit then. And you can take your condescension and shove it up your ass. The US government pays me damn good money to analyze this type of mishap data (although for airborne systems which have much higher standards) and identify the hazards and their root causes, and I guarantee you I am a whole lot better at weeding out the bullshit than some dip shit "investigative" reporter from the LA Times.

If you want to make a conspiracy out of this, you might want to look closer to home and at who really benefits if Toyota tanks, and it includes more people than just GM and the UAW.

Tora

[Kulaf]

Ohh by all means outline your conspiracy of thousands of disparate people forming some kind of psychic gestault and deciding to make life miserable for poor Toyota.

Ohh and just so we are crystal clear.....what "database" do you keep referring to? Toyota's? And what "data" are you analysing? Because by all accounts Toyota has NEVER released any of their in car recorded crash data and from what I read there was only ONE computer in North America outfitted to even read their black box data.

Forgive me if I doubt you actually have said computer and are in fact analysing any hard data.

[Torakus]

Ohh by all means outline your conspiracy of thousands of disparate people forming some kind of psychic gestault and deciding to make life miserable for poor Toyota.

Your paranoia is causing you to place words in my mouth. Its not the people making the claims who are the big stakeholders here. But since it is tons of fun watching you bounce from one weird accusation to another I will leave it up to you to figure out who might benefit from Toyota's misery.

Ohh and just so we are crystal clear.....what "database" do you keep referring to? Toyota's? And what "data" are you analysing?

Are you really that dense? I am using ODI's database and anyone with a brain can access it.

Because by all accounts Toyota has NEVER released any of their in car recorded crash data and from what I read there was only ONE computer in North America outfitted to even read their black box data.

Toyota has no statutory obligation to release any of the data from their EDRs because they are not designed to record data for use in fault determination. They put them in there to help them make the cars safer in the event of a crash, not to prevent them. They cannot design the stupid out of the driver, but they can study their own data to make the car safer when stupid kicks in.

But your mention of it and lack of understanding what the EDRs are actually for just confirms my suspicion that you are talking straight out of your ass.

Forgive me if I doubt you actually have said computer and are in fact analysing any hard data.

Forgive me if I doubt you have enough brain cells to actually analyze your ass with both hands and a map.

Tora

[Kulaf]

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/what%e ... ack-boxes/

[Ddrak]

Toyota's probably in the same position we're in (in my RL job). We don't provide anything unless a court order demands it simply because you don't want to dig yourself into whatever a smart lawyer can find to present in a trial (which may or may not be related to the truth). Companies, as a general rule, will not start providing data unless absolutely forced because you simply don't know what people will do with it.

As an interesting aside, there's probably nothing useful in there anyway - it would log the throttle position as read at the engine, which has already gone through two stages of conversion from the actual pedal - one to convert the pedal position to a signal and then the transmission of the signal to the engine management system. Without an actual separate sensor on the pedal it's just as likely to show "the throttle was down" even if it wasn't and the fault is in the throttle sensor.

Dd

[Kulaf]

They talk about that in the article. You need three sensors: 1 monitoring the pedal, 1 monitoring the signal in to the electronic throttle and 1 monitoring the signal out of the throttle to the engine.

[Ddrak]

I was thinking similar things. The problem is if they only have the last one recorded (which is likely) then the whole thing becomes pointless - it shows the throttle on full. Then what?

I'm wondering if the sensor on the accelerator is dodgy one-in-a-million. If it shorts somehow then the management system is going to read "full throttle". It's a tough thing to combat - really need a couple of sensors working on different mechanisms, though Toyota's solution of having the brake override the throttle is a good compromise. At the very least, you need to train the drivers a little on fault mitigation.

Dd

[Kulaf]

Yeah they need it on there now. Sort of funny that they deny that the electronic throttle is the issue.....yet are going to put in a break override.

[Ddrak]

It's interesting - there's probably a lower fault rate than on a hardware throttle (less moving parts) but the failure modes are more serious. On a hardware throttle it usually just sticks and a good kick will free it. If your sensors fail then kicking doesn't solve anything so you need different mitigation techniques.

So yeah - less susceptible to faults, more hazardous when it does fail.

Dd

[Partha]

Notice this thread's gotten quiet since the investigators can't reproduce the Prius acceleration failure and that's been pretty high on the Yahoo news list for a couple of days.