Senate shake-up

[Embar Angylwrath]

Senate rules are different than House rules, and the winner can't be seated until their state certifies the election. I think that will be in about 15 days. If you need Senate rules explained further, maybe you can ask Al Franken, Roland Burris, or John Cornyn.

Can't you enjoy your victory without all the whining?

Its not my victory, its the will of the people of Mass. Why would you paint it any other way?

[Fallakin Kuvari]

Ted Kennedy was sworn in before the his vote count was made Official. To be exact: The special election that he was elected in was on Nov. 6th 1962, he was sworn in on Nov. 7th 1962.

Therefore: The precedence exists.

[Fallakin Kuvari]

What was that Lurker? I can't hear you over all the crickets.

[Partha]

Possibly that the law was changed in the last 48 years, Fall? That idea ever cross your mind?

Oh, yeah, Coakley. If the stuff coming out is true, worst candidate ever. Not running a tracking poll? Taking a two week vacation in the middle of the campaign? Insulting low-information voters who know who Curt Schilling is - in Boston?

Epic fail.

Of course, fail also attaches to the national party for not keeping up their end, either.

And, of course, none of this will stop the House after a short delay from passing the Senate bill unchanged and Obama signing it. Brown's grandstanding about voting it down was just that.

[Embar Angylwrath]

Possibly that the law was changed in the last 48 years, Fall? That idea ever cross your mind?

Oh, yeah, Coakley. If the stuff coming out is true, worst candidate ever. Not running a tracking poll? Taking a two week vacation in the middle of the campaign? Insulting low-information voters who know who Curt Schilling is - in Boston?

Epic fail.

Of course, fail also attaches to the national party for not keeping up their end, either.

And, of course, none of this will stop the House after a short delay from passing the Senate bill unchanged and Obama signing it. Brown's grandstanding about voting it down was just that.

The law actually has changed a couple of times, but at the state level.

Partha - the House Dems voting for the Senate bill certainly is a possibility, more probable than using reconcilliation I think. The question there is if House and Senate Dems view this eletion as a referendum on healhcare and one-party-rule. If the Dems beleive that (and Im not so sure thats true, although I think it was part of the election dynamic), then there may be sme defections in the House, espeialy blue dogs.

The quandry the Dems are in now is this: Is it better politically to vote for the bill or not vote for the bill? If the cover of the party is now meaningless, and members know they are being individually watched, how will that affect their vote?

Its going to be an interesting couple of weeks for that to unfold.

[Partha]

Well, the House doesn't have enough Blue Dogs who are willing to vote down the Stupak amendment to stop a simple majority in the House from voting it in. And they WILL vote it in because in the end, it IS the first step towards national health care, no matter how small and craven a step it is. If they do this, it won't be undone in our lifetime, just like Social Security and Medicaid/Medicare - it will only expand.

What's going to be really interesting from my end will be to see if the GOP takes all the wrong lessons from this win. Coakley was almost the perfect candidate to run against. If the GOP believes their propaganda and simply runs wingnuts everywhere (watch the Rubio guy in Florida), then they're going to get hammered if the economy recovers even partially by 2010. It'll also be a massacre if the Democrats are shocked out of their complacency and start both using their cash advantage at the national/state level and reenergize the base with the knowledge that if you can lose Teddy Kennedy's seat, you can lose ANY seat. If they do both of those, I find it hard to believe in the idea of a mighty GOP storm like '94.

[Embar Angylwrath]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31708.html

Scott Brown's opposition to congressional health care legislation was the most important issue that fueled his U.S. Senate victory in Massachusetts, according to exit poll data collected following the Tuesday special election. Fifty-two percent of Bay State voters who were surveyed as the polls closed said they opposed the federal health care reform measure and 42 percent said they cast their ballot to help stop President Obama from passing his chief domestic initiative. "I'm not surprised it was the top issue, but I was surprised by how overwhelming an issue it was. It became a focal point for the frustration that has been brewing with voters, and it's a very personal issue that affects everyone," said Tony Fabrizio of Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, a Republican firm that conducted the exit poll of 800 voters.

The poll was taken by a Republian polling firm, so take it with a grain of salt, but that result of this poll is exactly what the Dems are trying to come to grips with. And there already have been Dem public defections from the healthcare bill. They can't lose too many in the House like this before the bill is dead. If they want to pass the bill, they better send it to the House in the next couple of days while they still have some momentum and uncertainty hangs in the air. Because if Dem pollsters return the same message, that most of America doesn't want the bill as it stands, and will decapitate the Dem party if they try, then the bill is certainly dead.

Personally, I think President Obama could salvage a lot of the reform if he just takes a step back and asks for it to be done incrementally. Start with Medicare overhaul. It aint sexy, but it needs to be done for any type of funding mechanism to work. Remove the anti-trust provisions of insurance companies. Let them sell across states. Require insurance companies to cover all who apply. He could get those done in a bipartisan effort, and that would go a long way with the American people

[Embar Angylwrath]

Well, the House doesn't have enough Blue Dogs who are willing to vote down the Stupak amendment to stop a simple majority in the House from voting it in. And they WILL vote it in because in the end, it IS the first step towards national health care, no matter how small and craven a step it is. If they do this, it won't be undone in our lifetime, just like Social Security and Medicaid/Medicare - it will only expand.

What's going to be really interesting from my end will be to see if the GOP takes all the wrong lessons from this win. Coakley was almost the perfect candidate to run against. If the GOP believes their propaganda and simply runs wingnuts everywhere (watch the Rubio guy in Florida), then they're going to get hammered if the economy recovers even partially by 2010. It'll also be a massacre if the Democrats are shocked out of their complacency and start both using their cash advantage at the national/state level and reenergize the base with the knowledge that if you can lose Teddy Kennedy's seat, you can lose ANY seat. If they do both of those, I find it hard to believe in the idea of a mighty GOP storm like '94.

I'm in "wait and see mode" for your first paragraph. There have already been Dems stating they wont vote for the Senate bill, and Dems saying they think they over reached and the reform should be scaled back. So we'll see how many they lose from attrition.

As to your second thought, I agree. If the GOP gets cocky about this, they'll get creamed in the elections, especially if the Dems got Jesus over this and decide to coalesce. Also, even though this might be painted as a referendum on healthcare, I think that isn't exactly the case. I think this was a referendum on the economy and the focus of the political agenda at the national level. If people weren't losing homes and jobs, that seat would have remained blue. I think what's really happening is the American people is telling Washington that their prioities are backwards. What good is healthcare if my children can't eat because I dont have a job might be the thought running through many minds.

Its the economy. Its always been the economy. It always will be the eonomy. If the Dems make economic improvement their sole focus, and it works, they won't get punished in the eletions. However, since this is, so far, a jobless recovery, the mid-terms won't be affected by any economic improvement, because there wont be any by that time, at least not at the Main Street level.

[Partha]

There is no 'bipartisan', just like there is no 'magic unicorn that shits rainbows and fairies'.

Obama bent over backwards on the stimulus and the health care bill, going so far as to invite Republicans into planning sessions for the stimulus and allowing Max Baucus three months to try and write a bill that would be palatable to Republican leadership.

He got one vote for his trouble, from a Rep in a Dem seat (Cao) who immediately got whipsawed back into the R voting bloc.

Again, there is no 'bipartisan'. Republican leadership has already decreed before a bill was even proposed that their mission was to make Obama fail and have HCR be his 'Waterloo'.

Plus, most of those 'public defections' have come from Dem Senators who have already voted FOR the Senate bill, like Bayh and Webb. They can say what they like, but they've already recorded a 'YES' vote if the House pingpongs the bill.

Oh, and the Dems didn't do any exit polling from MA, more proof of the universal fail.

[Embar Angylwrath]

Well... scratch Plan B. House Dems revolt over passing the Senate bill.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/01/20/ ... tml?hpt=T1

[Kulaf]

Well, the House doesn't have enough Blue Dogs who are willing to vote down the Stupak amendment to stop a simple majority in the House from voting it in. And they WILL vote it in because in the end, it IS the first step towards national health care, no matter how small and craven a step it is. If they do this, it won't be undone in our lifetime, just like Social Security and Medicaid/Medicare - it will only expand.

And I sit here shaking my head how you can support a new government program you admit is not the best in the hopes that it will "expand".

[Embar Angylwrath]

Not to put too fine a point on iot, but if healthcare expansion (its not really reform) fails, its entirely the fault of Democrats. They didn't need anyone but themselves to push the legislation through. Members of their pwn party used it as a political chit to shake the money tree for themsleves, thus delaying the vote. They weren't unified. They took too much for granted and didn't seize the opportunity.

They can't blame Republicans. All they needed was themselves, and they blew it.

Now... I'm hoping that some reasonable, actual, incremental reform takes place. Like I said, start with Medicare reform, it needs doing, and the rest of healthcare reform is dependent on that. Without it, healthcare reform is dead anyway, because there's no way to pay for it. There's no logical reason not to do it.

Now that the Senate actually needs at least one Republican vote to get anyhting done, the Dems will abandon their radical swing to the socialist left and move back to the center.

[Embar Angylwrath]

http://abcnews.go.com/WN/Politics/presi ... id=9611222

Obama comments.. some of his statements are just pathetic. I do agree that the Senate should wait on Brown though. But here's some of the more laughable comments...

"People are angry and they are frustrated. Not just because of what's happened in the last year or two years, but what's happened over the last eight years."

He jsut can't stop blaming Bush, can he. When is he going to grow up and be President? And I think he might have missed the part about who had control of Congress for much of that 8 year timeframe. Who led Fannie and Freddie into the mess their in. Who was the lead of banking oversight...

Obama also said it was important for the American people to take a look at the substance and details of the health care reform legislation that Congress is considering.

Kinda hard to do since Pelosi and Reid engaged in a politburo-esque negotiation, with deal making behind closed doors. Thats how the Nelsons of the world get their bribes. And that perception is why Americans are pissed. An honest assessment of the process leads people to view it as anything but open.

[Ddrak]

My understanding is that the general population was all for health care reform until the whole thing bogged down in petty details. It is the Dem's fault for letting the GOP and other wingnuts divide them on details.

Dd

[Lurker]

Ddrak,
The actual provisions of health reform poll very well when you ask about specifics. Part of the reason generic "do you support the bill" questions poll badly is because the public is hopelessly confused about what's actually in the bills. Add in the people who think the bill isn't liberal enough and it's a wonder it polls as well as it does.

[Embar Angylwrath]

Ddrak,
The actual provisions of health reform poll very well when you ask about specifics. Part of the reason generic "do you support the bill" questions poll badly is because the public is hopelessly confused about what's actually in the bills. Add in the people who think the bill isn't liberal enough and it's a wonder it polls as well as it does.

Ahhh... good to see you're still alive Lurker. I was concerned for you, thought you might be dangling from a shower curtain rod or something.

Only CERTAIN elements of the bill polled well, and it kept changing behind closed doors, so really, those polls were meaningless.

Implied in your post is the insinuation that the Dems lost control, or mismanaged the message (both, actually). The Dems didn't sell it to the people. The forced it upon them. Hell, even Obama got caught up in that, when he said something like that as soon as it was passed, the American people would see the benefit. In other words.. "we're the government, trust us, we're here to help." And implied in Obama's comments were that the American people were just too stupid to get it, a Harvard man just knows better, shut up and eat the Soylent Green.

Face it, even if this was the Holy Fuckin' Grail of legislation, the Dems fucked it up, because they couldn't communicate and control the message. When the Dems look back on the summer of 2009, they'll see that Obama and other Dems taking vacations while Republicans were beating drums was the pivotal moment when they lost control. They played catch up after that, and then had to control the damage their own party members were doing to the bill by holding out for bribes. The Dems deserve to lose this battle, they've fought very hard to fuck themselves over, and they should get what they worked so hard for.

[Lurker]

I commented on who I thought was most to blame for a misinformed public here, here, here, and here, to link a few examples. The Democrats might have lost control of the message, but I put more blame in the anti-reform crowd who deliberately lied and a complacent media that enabled them. And for the record, in August the Dems weren't "taking vacations while Republicans were beating drums", they were holding town halls while the media focused on nothing but the negative confrontations. Slight difference.

[Embar Angylwrath]

Wow... I thought you were a little more resistant to the the leftist chant... guess I was wrong.

Lurker, let me ask you this. Did it really matter what anyone else did, said, wrote, etc??? Didn't Dems have the votes to enact healthcare expansion when/if they wanted to? Was there anyone that could stop them? Besides other Dems...

[Lurker]

I'll blame the Democrats if they don't enact health reform. I won't blame them for a misinformed public. That's the fault of the people lying and the media that enabled them.

[Ddrak]

Ddrak,
The actual provisions of health reform poll very well when you ask about specifics. Part of the reason generic "do you support the bill" questions poll badly is because the public is hopelessly confused about what's actually in the bills. Add in the people who think the bill isn't liberal enough and it's a wonder it polls as well as it does.

Yep - pretty much what I said. The Dems let themselves be divided by FUD. Fuck being "open". They should have come up with a bill that they could all deal with and rammed it through in a week.

Dd