Iran: Where is my Vote?

[Alluveal]

Pretty typical video for what's going on. Just curious what you all think of what's going on in Iran.

A friend of mine (journalist who has family in Iran and lives in Saudi,) says that it's mass chaos everywhere. The police-forces you see on television--the majority of them are from other countries. Many Iranians have refused to arrest/harm their own people and are protesting themselves.

Speaking to the folks I have, I'm not sure that this single incident will be THE big one (revolution,) but it's been brewing for a long time.

[Harlowe]

I've been watching this over the weekend and it's pretty amazing to watch this unfold. The Daily Dish has been an awesome source for updates, it's the primary topic there.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/



"Direct from Tehran, despite the crackdown"
http://observers.france24.com/en/conten ... censorship

We didn't want to rebel, but we want freedom, democracy and equality. We can't use the Internet to get the news, all websites have been filtered and mobiles are jammed. FriendFeed, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and all social networks are also filtered. All the news agencies are also filtered and some newspapers have closed.

[The authorities] have lowered Internet speed to such a low rate that we cannot follow the news with it. Our state media is also cooperating with the government — they don't show any news at all. All these things signify what we're going through right now.”

[Lurker]

Sullivan has been doing a great job once he got past his initial lets go green nonsense and started just covering the happenings. The neocons and elected officials urging Obama to jump in with both feet need to STFU. The last thing we need to do is Americanize the opposition.

I really hope this doesn't end badly in a Tiananmen Square style crushing of the protests.

[Ddrak]

The last thing we need to do is Americanize the opposition.

^^ Absolutely. As soon as you do that the whole thing will fall over. How did that Shah work out again?

Dd

[Partha]

Just a thing of beauty, seeing those rallies.

[Fallakin Kuvari]

I haven't heard anyone say we should jump in with both feet or "Americanize" this.

I have heard fears of it ending up like Tienanmen Square.

Rachel Maddow had an interesting perspective on it tonight. She said "rather than viewing this as a possible Tienanmen Square scenario, what if we looked at it as it were the Berlin Wall?" She continued on about how they have a real chance to change things over there... I just don't see it happening in a peaceful Berlin Wall sort of way. Given that its a theocracy (which everyone seemed to be neglecting at first) I think you'd see more of a French Revolution style take over (though that seems very extreme given how peaceful the protesters are). She may very well have a point that they could preform a more peaceful style of change in their government, but I don't see their Supreme Leader allowing that to happen (though it is quite possible if more of the Army personnel take side with the "rebellion").

[Harlowe]

I never thought we'd hear the Supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei backpedal. Ever. Saturday he was embracing the results now he's calling for a voter fraud investigation. It's entirely the people forcing his hand, which is ....a beautiful thing.

[Lurker]

Hopefully the Guardian Council does a fair investigation. The head of the council is pro-Ahmadinejad though, and who knows how much transparency there's going to be in the process. A whitewash could lead to more massive protests and a really violent crackdown which wouldn't be beautiful at all. It's been amazing to watch so far but I'm just worried it's going to end badly.

[Select]

I don't think the investigation will be fair at all. He probably hoped it would appease the people.

I agree that we shouldn't Americanize them.

[Ddrak]

I wouldn't be surprised if Ahmadinejad actually won, even with a fair recount. After all, Hussein won every election in Iraq too.

Dd

[Lurker]

What does Hussein winning elections in Iraq have to do with anything? The two countries weren't similar at all politically.

[Klast Brell]

Just found out about the iran proxy movement this morning. I'm going to set one up when I get home.
http://proxysetupforiran.blogspot.com/
http://blog.austinheap.com/2009/06/15/h ... r-windows/
http://blog.austinheap.com/2009/06/17/b ... an-update/

[Taxious]

Just found out about the iran proxy movement this morning. I'm going to set one up when I get home.
http://proxysetupforiran.blogspot.com/
http://blog.austinheap.com/2009/06/15/h ... r-windows/
http://blog.austinheap.com/2009/06/17/b ... an-update/

Interesting Klast... I might set that up when I get home too.

[Ddrak]

What does Hussein winning elections in Iraq have to do with anything? The two countries weren't similar at all politically.

I'm guessing there would be a significant bloc of people voting for the incumbent out of fear.

Dd

[Klast Brell]

I think the Iran Proxy is something the liberals and the conservatives can both get behind.

[Kulaf]

I think incumbents in Iran win primarily because rural voters only hear what the government wants them to hear. There is a lot more debate and information desemination at the city level.

[Lurker]

The incumbents won the last two elections handily because of opposition party boycotts. There was no boycott this year and turnout was over 80% (up from 48% in 2005). It's absurd to think that the election was won by some huge uprising of low information voters which cost the opposition candidates even their own home towns, or that fear caused massive amounts of people to rush to the polls to vote for Ahmadinejad.

[Ddrak]

The incumbents won the last two elections handily because of opposition party boycotts. There was no boycott this year and turnout was over 80% (up from 48% in 2005). It's absurd to think that the election was won by some huge uprising of low information voters which cost the opposition candidates even their own home towns, or that fear caused massive amounts of people to rush to the polls to vote for Ahmadinejad.

That's a pretty strong statement unless you have a lot more information on the actual election than is being presented in the western media. After all, fear was the primary reason the US election in 2004 went to the incumbent, so what on earth makes you think Iran would be *less* fear driven than the US?

Dd

[Lurker]

Are you saying that record numbers of Iranians voted for Ahmadinejad out of fear of Mousavi winning? That doesn't fit at all with your Iraq analogy.

[Harlowe]

I think Lurker's remark was a far more practical assessement than saying a high number of voters turned out this year voting out of fear.