NK goes ahead with satellite launch

[Ddrak]

link

Guess that means they get more aid.

Dd

[Kulaf]

They are really starting to tread the line of the boy who cried wolf too much. One of these days they are going to get a rap on the nose with a rolled up newspaper.

[Embar Angylwrath]

Seeing as how that missle was incredibly expensive for them to build, I say we encourage them to keep testing.

Really though, I don't think anyone is too worried about it. Firing one rocket (ICBM) is one thing... developing a functional program? It's prohibitively expensive, that country is already on the brink of starvation, and NK can't do it without aid from China, but China won't help them do that. We had to make out like we were upset about the whole thing, but seriously... ICBMs are the least of our worries with NK. Selling nuke technology to fringe groups is our main cncern.

[Ddrak]

I agree, Embar. I just can't believe the amount of hype this is getting.

Dd

[Select]

I'm not as informed as I should be with NK and China's relationship. Why wouldn't China help? I would think they could send money under the table without worrying about the international community and they wouldn't view NK as that much a threat if they helped.

[Ddrak]

China sees NK as their pet rabid dog. They'll happily use NK as a foil against the US, and keep NK busy receiving US aid in exchange for stopping their latest bout of bad behavior. While America is focused on NK, they pay less attention to China.

You can be sure if direct action was taken against NK, China would quickly enter the fray.

Dd

[Select]

Thanks, Dd.

keep NK busy receiving US aid in exchange for stopping their latest bout of bad behavior

And I really dislike that. :\

[Kulaf]

The main reason is simple......geographical. Korea shares a border with China. If nukes start flying China is going to catch fallout.....and possibly a stray missle or three.

[Kulaf]

China sees NK as their pet rabid dog. They'll happily use NK as a foil against the US, and keep NK busy receiving US aid in exchange for stopping their latest bout of bad behavior. While America is focused on NK, they pay less attention to China.

You can be sure if direct action was taken against NK, China would quickly enter the fray.

Dd

You really think if we sent in some cruise missles with nukes that China would risk everything they have on entering into a war with the US?

No way Jose. They'd cut them loose in a NY minute.

[Select]

Yessss, debate. I can learn more from this because links are sure to follow.

[Kulaf]

Dd is right on one thing. There is a distinct chance that in any ground war in NK that China would likely enter into it. But the US is not stupid enough to fight a ground war IN NK. If it became necessary to nuke/bomb certain sites in NK it would be done with the permission of the SK government.......or unilaterally if the intel suggested at any point that NK had the ability to actually launch on the US. But any fighting would take place defending SK from NK ground assault.

In any event unless the US actually invaded NK with gound troops China would confine it's role to arms supply and bitchin in the UN.

[Trollbait]

Dd is right on one thing. There is a distinct chance that in any ground war in NK that China would likely enter into it. But the US is not stupid enough to fight a ground war IN NK. If it became necessary to nuke/bomb certain sites in NK it would be done with the permission of the SK government.......or unilaterally if the intel suggested at any point that NK had the ability to actually launch on the US. But any fighting would take place defending SK from NK ground assault.

In any event unless the US actually invaded NK with gound troops China would confine it's role to arms supply and bitchin in the UN.

U.S. operations on the Korean peninsula have been and are still under UN mandate. The United States will not act unilaterally on the Korean peninsula. At least half a dozen countries have an obligation in that particular theater.

[Kulaf]

The US will act in its own self interest anytime it feels there is a credible threat. You know it.....I know it......hell everyone knows it.

[Embar Angylwrath]

Back to the mechanics of a ground war in NK....

We can hit NK from VERY far away, destroy what little infrastructure they have, and send them to the middle ages (they aren't very far from it, outside major cities). They can't take a ground war to the US. But they CAN take a ground war to SK, at least for a little while until they run out of gas and starve (should take about a month). Then they would drop whatever nuke capability they had on SK... they wouldn't have much to lose at that point.

The US has to be very careful responding militarily to NK not so much because of China (who would scream, but be silently grateful we took care of their crazy nephew), but because of our allies who are in theater. if we attack unilaterally, and our allies in theater get nuked., or gassed, or whatever, that's almost worse than getting attacked ourselves. In fact it IS worse.

But that won't happen. The US knows that at ANYTIME it wants, it can goad NK into an attack, probably naval or air defense, and the US can "retaliate" in its own defense. It would put the veneer of legitimacy on any strike we throw out there. China wouldn't be able to say boo about it.

[Ddrak]

You really think if we sent in some cruise missles with nukes that China would risk everything they have on entering into a war with the US?

The US doing any sort of preemptive nuclear strike would be pretty much catastrophic in terms of world diplomacy. Every other nation would instantly demand the capability to strike back as a contingency of being attacked themselves, and the US would catch all sorts of hell in every measure from economic to military treaties.

No sane President would *ever* conduct a first-strike nuke on any other nation today. It would be instant suicide.

Add in the fact that there's a massive amount of artillery pointed at Seoul which would all be triggered at the first cruise missile launch. It's just not a feasible scenario.


Even if you could overcome the instant retaliation on Seoul, a feasible ground war in North Korea is not sustainable until the US withdraws from either Iraq or Afghanistan. Like it or not, facing a military of over a million foot soldiers does take some serious firepower to put to bed, and then you have to deal with a nation that hates you for decimating its population. China would supply plenty of arms (and probably special forces) to keep a guerilla war active for years and the US would be on the bad side of any UN actions. There's simply no good result of another Korean war.

In any case, there's no credible threat to the US. The whole thing is posturing.

Dd

[Partha]

No sane President would *ever* conduct a first-strike nuke on any other nation today. It would be instant suicide.

Well, don't worry. In 2012 We'll have President Palin and you can watch the fun outside the fallout pattern.

[Embar Angylwrath]

What a petty, bitter man you are Partha. Obama is in the seat now, enjoy the next four to eight years. Are you the type of person that just has to have something to bitch about, even if its a constructed hypothetical?

That's pretty fuckin' pathetic. Try to be more healthy about it and embrace all the gloating.

[Kulaf]

He's just a bit discouraged that his "white knight" is continuing some of the policies of Darth W.

[Partha]

Bitter? It's not MY side of the political aisle that's talking about secession.